Poisoned with a Novichok nerve agent in Salisbury, England, in March 2018.
Sergei and Yulia Skripal #
What about Sergei and Yulia Skripal - was there any speculation of Israel’s involvement at this time? #
In the case of Sergei and Yulia Skripal, who were poisoned with a Novichok nerve agent in Salisbury, England, in March 2018, the primary speculation and accusations centered around Russian involvement, particularly the Russian military intelligence agency (GRU). The UK government directly accused Russia of being behind the attack, leading to a significant diplomatic fallout between the UK and Russia, as well as broader international consequences.
Speculation and Focus on Russia
Russian Involvement: The UK government’s investigation identified two Russian nationals, using the aliases Alexander Petrov and Ruslan Boshirov, as the main suspects in the poisoning. These individuals were later identified as GRU officers Anatoliy Chepiga and Alexander Mishkin. The use of Novichok, a military-grade nerve agent developed by the Soviet Union, further implicated Russian state actors.
International Response: The Skripal case led to widespread international condemnation of Russia, with several countries expelling Russian diplomats in solidarity with the UK. The focus of the narrative, both officially and in public discourse, remained firmly on Russia as the perpetrator.
Speculation of Israeli Involvement
Lack of Evidence or Speculation: Unlike the case of Alexander Litvinenko, there was no significant public or media speculation about Israel’s involvement in the Skripal poisoning. Israel was not implicated in any way, either officially or through credible speculation. The operation’s signature—use of a nerve agent like Novichok, which is closely tied to Russian chemical weapons programs—did not align with methods typically associated with Israeli intelligence operations.
Geopolitical Context: Israel had no apparent motive to be involved in the Skripal case. The targets were former Russian intelligence officers, with no clear connection to Israeli interests or threats to Israel’s national security. Israel’s involvement in this incident would also have risked severe diplomatic repercussions, something Israel would likely avoid without a compelling national interest at stake.
There was no substantial speculation or credible evidence suggesting Israeli involvement in the poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal. The case was almost universally attributed to Russian operatives, and the focus remained on Russia’s use of a chemical weapon on foreign soil, a serious breach of international law and norms. Any speculation about other nations’ involvement, including Israel, did not gain traction because the evidence and circumstances overwhelmingly pointed to Russian state action.
Thank you. Who is Anatoly Kuntsevich? #
Anatoly Kuntsevich was a prominent Russian scientist and military officer who played a significant role in the Soviet Union’s chemical weapons program. His work primarily focused on the development of nerve agents, including some of the most potent and dangerous chemical weapons ever created.
Key Points About Anatoly Kuntsevich:
- Career and Contributions:
Military and Scientific Background: Kuntsevich was a senior military officer in the Soviet Army, eventually rising to the rank of General. He was deeply involved in the Soviet Union’s chemical weapons research and development, particularly during the Cold War.
Nerve Agents: Kuntsevich is often associated with the development and advancement of nerve agents, including the infamous Novichok agents, which are a group of highly toxic substances designed to be more potent and less detectable than earlier nerve agents like VX or sarin.
Chemical Weapons Program: He held high-ranking positions in the Soviet chemical weapons program, including as the head of the Soviet chemical weapons research institute, known as the State Scientific Research Institute of Organic Chemistry and Technology (GosNIIOKhT).
- Post-Soviet Activities:
Role in Chemical Weapons Disarmament: After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Kuntsevich became involved in efforts to dismantle the Soviet chemical weapons stockpile. He was appointed to the Russian Federation’s Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) implementation efforts, where he was supposed to help oversee the destruction of chemical weapons in compliance with international treaties.
Controversies and Allegations: Despite his official role in disarmament, Kuntsevich was later implicated in illegal activities related to chemical weapons. It was alleged that he had been involved in the illicit transfer of chemical weapons technology and materials to Syria in the 1990s. This was a period when Syria was believed to be developing its own chemical weapons capabilities.
- Death:
- Mysterious Circumstances: Anatoly Kuntsevich died under mysterious circumstances in 2002 while on a flight from Syria to Russia. His death has been the subject of speculation, with some suggesting that he may have been assassinated due to his knowledge of sensitive information related to chemical weapons. However, the exact cause of his death and the details surrounding it remain unclear.
Legacy:
Anatoly Kuntsevich is remembered as a key figure in the development of some of the world’s deadliest chemical weapons. His involvement in the Soviet and Russian chemical weapons programs, as well as the alleged transfer of such technology to other nations, has left a controversial legacy. The nerve agents he helped develop, including those in the Novichok family, have continued to play a role in international security concerns, particularly in the context of incidents like the poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal in 2018.
Besides Siria, which nation states would be possible clients and would Novichok also be on the list of chemical weapons Kuntsevich would attempt to sell? #
Anatoly Kuntsevich, due to his deep involvement in the Soviet Union’s chemical weapons program and subsequent activities in the post-Soviet era, is often associated with the illicit transfer of chemical weapons technology and materials. While Syria is the most prominent country linked to Kuntsevich’s alleged activities, other potential clients and the possible involvement of Novichok agents in such transactions raise serious international security concerns.
Potential Nation-State Clients
In addition to Syria, several other countries could theoretically be considered potential clients for chemical weapons technology during the period of instability following the collapse of the Soviet Union:
Iran:
Context: During the 1990s, Iran was actively seeking to enhance its chemical and biological weapons capabilities as part of its broader military strategy, particularly in response to the perceived threats from Iraq and the United States.
Interest in Soviet Technology: Given Iran’s pursuit of advanced weapons systems and technology, it’s plausible that Iranian entities might have sought expertise or materials from former Soviet scientists like Kuntsevich.
Libya:
Context: Under Muammar Gaddafi, Libya pursued weapons of mass destruction, including chemical weapons. The country had an established chemical weapons program that was later dismantled following international pressure and agreements in the early 2000s.
Interest in Advanced Chemical Agents: Libya’s interest in enhancing its chemical weapons capabilities could have made it a potential client for Soviet-era chemical weapons experts.
North Korea:
- Context: North Korea has long been suspected of developing and maintaining a chemical weapons arsenal as part of its broader WMD program. Interest in Covert Acquisitions: The secretive nature of North Korea’s weapons programs and its history of engaging in illicit arms trade make it a potential candidate for seeking chemical weapons expertise from former Soviet sources.
Iraq (under Saddam Hussein):
Context: Iraq had a well-known chemical weapons program in the 1980s and 1990s, using chemical weapons during the Iran-Iraq War and against Kurdish populations.
Potential Interest: Although Iraq’s chemical weapons capabilities were largely dismantled after the Gulf War, it’s conceivable that the regime might have sought to rebuild its arsenal, potentially reaching out to former Soviet experts.
Novichok Agents as Part of the Deal
Would Kuntsevich Have Sold Novichok Agents?
Highly Classified and Dangerous: Novichok agents are among the most advanced and deadly chemical weapons ever developed. They were designed to be more potent than earlier nerve agents and to evade detection by standard chemical warfare monitoring systems.
Risk of Selling Novichok: Given their extreme toxicity and the sophisticated knowledge required to produce and handle them, the sale of Novichok agents would pose significant risks, not only to the seller but also to the broader international community. The use of such a substance in the Litvinenko case, and later in the Skripal poisoning, underscores the geopolitical fallout that could result from their dissemination.
Feasibility:
Motivation: If Kuntsevich were motivated by financial gain or other pressures, he might have been tempted to sell Novichok agents or related technology. However, given the extreme sensitivity of these agents, any transaction involving them would likely have been conducted with the utmost secrecy.
Potential Clients: Only states with significant interest in developing advanced chemical weapons, coupled with the capacity to handle such dangerous substances, would be plausible candidates. This would limit the list to countries with established or aspiring WMD programs and strong motivations for acquiring cutting-edge chemical weapons.
While Syria is the most documented recipient of chemical weapons expertise from individuals like Kuntsevich, other states like Iran, Libya, North Korea, and Iraq could theoretically have been potential clients for such technology. The possibility that Kuntsevich might have attempted to sell Novichok agents cannot be entirely ruled out, given his knowledge and the potential market among rogue states. However, the sale of such advanced and dangerous agents would have been extremely risky and likely limited to only the most secretive and well-resourced buyers. The fact that Novichok was used in highly publicized cases like the Skripal poisoning suggests that such agents were closely guarded and not widely distributed, further underscoring the careful control likely exercised over their proliferation.
How did Kuntsevich die? #
Anatoly Kuntsevich died under mysterious circumstances in 2002. He passed away while on a flight from Syria to Russia. The exact cause of his death has never been fully clarified, and this has led to considerable speculation.
Circumstances of Kuntsevich’s Death
- Flight Details: Kuntsevich was reportedly returning to Russia from a trip to Syria when he suddenly fell ill and died during the flight. The specific details about the flight and the exact sequence of events remain vague.
Speculation and Theories:
Poisoning: Given Kuntsevich’s deep involvement in the Soviet and Russian chemical weapons programs, some have speculated that his death might have been the result of poisoning. This theory is supported by the fact that he was allegedly involved in the illegal transfer of chemical weapons technology to Syria, which could have made him a target for various actors, including possibly the Russian state itself, if he was perceived as a liability.
Natural Causes: Official accounts have sometimes suggested that Kuntsevich might have died of natural causes, possibly related to his age or health. However, the lack of detailed information and the secrecy surrounding his death have fueled doubts about this explanation.
Lack of Official Explanation
The Russian government did not provide a detailed or conclusive public explanation for Kuntsevich’s death, which has only added to the intrigue. Given his high-profile status and the sensitive nature of his work, it is possible that his death was either covered up or the full circumstances were never fully investigated or disclosed.
Legacy and Impact
Kuntsevich’s death remains a point of speculation, particularly because of his involvement in the transfer of chemical weapons technology and his knowledge of some of the most dangerous weapons developed during the Soviet era. His mysterious demise has contributed to the aura of secrecy and danger that surrounds figures involved in the Soviet and Russian WMD programs, especially those with knowledge that could be damaging if revealed.
Are you familiar with the book “The Volunteer” published in Canada by Michael Ross? #
Yes, I am familiar with “The Volunteer,” a book authored by Michael Ross and published in Canada. The book is a memoir that details Ross’s experiences as a Mossad operative. Michael Ross, a former Canadian, describes his journey from growing up in Canada to eventually becoming a member of Israel’s renowned intelligence agency, Mossad.
Key Points About “The Volunteer”:
Author Background:
Michael Ross (a pseudonym) was born and raised in Canada before converting to Judaism and moving to Israel. His real name has not been publicly disclosed to protect his identity, given the sensitive nature of his work. He joined the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and later Mossad, where he served for several years in various capacities, including covert operations.
Content of the Book:
Mossad Operations: “The Volunteer” provides a rare insider’s perspective on Mossad’s operations and the inner workings of one of the world’s most secretive and effective intelligence agencies. Ross shares details of some of the missions he was involved in, offering readers insights into the strategies, tactics, and moral dilemmas faced by Mossad agents.
Personal Journey: The book also chronicles Ross’s personal journey, from his initial decision to move to Israel and join the military, to his rigorous training and eventual induction into Mossad. It reflects on the challenges of leading a double life, the personal sacrifices involved, and the psychological toll of working in the shadows.
Canadian Connection: Ross’s Canadian origins are a significant part of the narrative, highlighting the unlikely path that led him from a peaceful life in Canada to the high-stakes world of international espionage.
Reception and Impact:
“The Volunteer” was well-received, particularly for its candid and detailed portrayal of life as a Mossad operative. It provides an unusual glimpse into the covert world of Israeli intelligence, something that is rarely made public.
The book has been praised for its authenticity and the author’s ability to convey the complexity and dangers of intelligence work. It has also contributed to public understanding of how Mossad operates and the types of missions it undertakes.
Context and Significance:
Mossad’s Role: Mossad is often regarded as one of the most capable and effective intelligence agencies globally, known for its sophisticated operations, including targeted assassinations, intelligence gathering, and counterterrorism efforts.
Public Insight: Books like “The Volunteer” provide the public with insights into the often opaque world of intelligence, helping demystify the operations of agencies like Mossad. They also highlight the personal experiences and sacrifices of those involved in this line of work.
“The Volunteer” by Michael Ross is a significant contribution to the literature on intelligence and espionage. It offers a unique perspective on Mossad from someone who operated within its ranks, blending personal narrative with broader insights into the challenges and complexities of modern intelligence work.
Did Michael Ross mention Kuntsevich in his book? #
No, Michael Ross does not mention Anatoly Kuntsevich in his book “The Volunteer.” The book focuses primarily on Ross’s experiences within Mossad, his personal journey from Canada to Israel, and the various covert operations and intelligence activities he was involved in during his time as a Mossad operative.
While “The Volunteer” provides insights into the workings of Mossad and some of the operations conducted by the agency, it does not delve into the specific individuals involved in the Soviet or Russian chemical weapons programs, such as Kuntsevich. The narrative of the book is more centered on Ross’s own experiences and the missions he participated in, rather than on figures like Kuntsevich who were associated with chemical weapons development and proliferation.
Kuntsevich, being a key figure in the Soviet and Russian chemical weapons programs, would have been more relevant to discussions specifically about chemical weapons, Soviet-era military developments, or post-Soviet proliferation issues—topics that are outside the primary scope of Ross’s memoir.
The Times of Israel article from 7 March 2018 claims that Michael Ross “(…) claimed to be a Mossad agent and said he was repeatedly dispatched to warn senior Russian officials about Kuntsevich’s activities.” #
The article from The Times of Israel dated March 7, 2018, indeed mentions that Michael Ross, a former Mossad agent, claimed to have been involved in operations where he was repeatedly dispatched to warn senior Russian officials about Anatoly Kuntsevich’s activities. This adds a significant dimension to our understanding of Kuntsevich’s role and the concerns surrounding his actions during the post-Soviet era.
Context and Significance
Kuntsevich’s Activities: As previously discussed, Kuntsevich was a key figure in the Soviet and Russian chemical weapons programs and was allegedly involved in the illicit transfer of chemical weapons technology, particularly to Syria. His activities would have been of significant concern not only to Russia but also to other countries, including Israel, given the potential threat of these technologies falling into the hands of hostile states or non-state actors.
Michael Ross’s Involvement: According to the claims mentioned in the article, Ross’s role involved conveying warnings to Russian officials about Kuntsevich’s activities. This suggests that Israel, through Mossad, was actively monitoring Kuntsevich and perceived his actions as a significant threat. It also indicates that Israel may have sought to use diplomatic channels to mitigate this threat by engaging directly with Russia, rather than resorting to covert operations.
Diplomatic and Intelligence Implications: If Ross was indeed involved in these warnings, it highlights the complex and sometimes collaborative nature of international intelligence operations. Despite the often adversarial relationship between Israel and Russia, particularly given Russia’s support for countries like Syria and Iran, this scenario suggests that there were instances where both countries had a shared interest in preventing the proliferation of dangerous technologies.
Analysis
Israel’s Concern: Israel has long been vigilant about the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East, particularly chemical weapons, which could pose a direct threat to its security. Kuntsevich’s activities, especially if they involved transferring chemical weapons technology to Syria, would have been a red flag for Israel.
Mossad’s Role: The fact that Mossad was allegedly involved in warning Russian officials about Kuntsevich indicates the level of concern Israel had. Mossad is known for its covert operations, but in this case, it appears they also engaged in direct diplomatic communication, possibly as an effort to prevent further escalation or to ensure that Russia took responsibility for curbing Kuntsevich’s actions.
Impact on Russia-Israel Relations: The interaction described in Ross’s claims suggests that there were areas of common ground between Israeli and Russian interests, even during a period of generally strained relations. It also underscores the pragmatic approach often taken by intelligence agencies, where immediate threats can sometimes lead to cooperation across otherwise hostile or competitive national interests.
Michael Ross’s claim, as reported by The Times of Israel, adds an important layer to the narrative surrounding Anatoly Kuntsevich and his activities. It suggests that Israel, through Mossad, was actively trying to address the potential dangers posed by Kuntsevich’s proliferation of chemical weapons technology by engaging with Russia. This reflects the seriousness with which Israel viewed the threat and the lengths to which it would go to prevent the spread of such technologies, including engaging with Russia despite the broader geopolitical tensions between the two nations.
Let us assess the following scenario. Kuntsevich’s main motivation in selling chemical weapons, potentially including Novichok, is his personal gain. He approaches Siria. Why not Israel? Mosad is onto him with the sole intention of thwarting Siria’s programme and with no aspiration of acquiring Kuntsevich’s know-how. Wouldn’t common sense suggest the latter as a worthy secondary objective? Also, what would be the Mossad’s objective in talking to Russians on this matter - if it was about putting pressure on the Kremlin to stop the proliferation of chemical weapons, wouldn’t an open diplomatic channel be a better vehicle? How far-fetched would be speculation that Mossad may have assisted Moscow in liquidating Kuntsevich in exchange for receiving the know-how from the horse’s mouth (Moscow)? Please provide in-depth analysis. #
The scenario you propose is complex and touches on several layers of intelligence operations, strategic decision-making, and the geopolitical dynamics of the post-Cold War era. Let’s unpack it by examining the motivations, potential objectives, and strategic considerations of the key actors involved: Kuntsevich, Syria, Israel (through Mossad), and Russia.
Kuntsevich’s Motivation and Targeting Syria
Personal Gain: It’s plausible that Kuntsevich, motivated by personal gain, sought to monetize his extensive knowledge of chemical weapons. The collapse of the Soviet Union left many former military and scientific personnel in financially precarious situations, leading some to engage in illicit activities.
Syria as a Client: Syria, under Hafez al-Assad and later Bashar al-Assad, was known to be actively pursuing weapons of mass destruction, including chemical weapons, as a deterrent against Israel and to assert regional power. Kuntsevich, aware of Syria’s needs and ambitions, might have seen the Syrian government as a willing buyer with both the resources and the strategic interest to acquire advanced chemical weapons technology, potentially including Novichok agents.
Why Not Israel?: Israel, on the other hand, would be an unlikely client for Kuntsevich’s services for several reasons:
Strategic Context: Israel already possesses advanced military capabilities and has focused on maintaining a qualitative edge over its adversaries in the region. Acquiring chemical weapons technology from a potentially untrustworthy source like Kuntsevich, who was associated with the former Soviet Union and Russia, would not align with Israel’s strategic priorities.
Moral and Legal Considerations: Israel is a signatory to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), which prohibits the development, production, and use of chemical weapons. Engaging in such a transaction would have significant legal and diplomatic repercussions.
Mossad’s Role: Rather than acquiring the technology, Mossad’s primary concern would be to prevent Kuntsevich from proliferating this knowledge to hostile actors like Syria, thereby neutralizing a direct threat to Israeli security.
Mossad’s Objectives in Engaging Russia
- Thwarting Syria’s Chemical Weapons Program: Mossad’s primary objective in monitoring and possibly intervening in Kuntsevich’s activities would be to prevent the transfer of chemical weapons technology to Syria. This aligns with Israel’s broader strategic goal of preventing hostile states in the region from acquiring weapons of mass destruction.
Why Engage Russia?
Leveraging Russia’s Influence: By engaging Russian officials, Mossad might have sought to leverage Russia’s influence over Kuntsevich, who was still connected to the Russian military-industrial complex. If Russia could be persuaded to rein in Kuntsevich or halt his activities, it would serve Israel’s interests without the need for a more direct or risky intervention.
Diplomacy vs. Covert Channels: While open diplomatic channels might seem like a straightforward approach, the sensitive nature of Kuntsevich’s activities—especially if they involved illegal transfers of chemical weapons technology—would make them difficult to address through formal diplomatic means. Covert engagement, possibly through Mossad, would allow for more flexibility and discretion, minimizing the risk of escalating the situation publicly or straining diplomatic relations.
Speculation on Mossad Assisting in Kuntsevich’s Liquidation
Strategic Trade-Off: The idea of Mossad assisting Moscow in liquidating Kuntsevich in exchange for acquiring his knowledge is an intriguing but speculative scenario. If Mossad were to consider such a deal, it would be driven by a calculus that the strategic value of the know-how (e.g., understanding the latest developments in Russian chemical weapons) outweighed the risks.
Mossad’s Priorities: However, this scenario might be less plausible given Israel’s focus on neutralizing immediate threats rather than acquiring WMD capabilities, which could compromise its international standing. Mossad’s primary goal would likely remain preventing the proliferation of chemical weapons to hostile states like Syria, rather than obtaining the technology for itself.
Russia’s Willingness: For Russia, the calculus might involve balancing the need to eliminate a potential security leak (Kuntsevich) with the opportunity to use him as a bargaining chip. If Russia agreed to share information with Israel in exchange for assistance, it would likely be in a highly controlled manner, ensuring that any knowledge transferred would not undermine Russia’s strategic position.
The scenario you outlined is rich in possibilities and reflects the complexities of international intelligence operations. However, several key points can be drawn:
Mossad’s Role: Mossad’s involvement would most likely be focused on preventing the transfer of chemical weapons technology to Syria, consistent with Israel’s national security interests.
Engaging Russia: Mossad might engage with Russian officials to exert pressure on Kuntsevich or gain intelligence on his activities, but this would likely be done through covert channels rather than open diplomacy, given the sensitive nature of the subject.
Speculative Collaboration: While the idea of Mossad assisting in Kuntsevich’s liquidation in exchange for knowledge is a provocative one, it seems less likely given Israel’s strategic priorities. Mossad would prioritize neutralizing the threat over acquiring technology that could complicate its legal and diplomatic standing.
In summary, Mossad’s actions in such a scenario would be guided by the immediate need to prevent chemical weapons proliferation to hostile states, with any collaboration with Russia carefully calibrated to serve that end without compromising Israel’s broader strategic objectives.